Sunday, January 20, 2013

A632.1.4.RB_FogartyShawn


Chapter 3 of the Wharton text discusses the power of everyday reasoning in multistage decision-making. I have a similar requirement as every aviation mission we launch has a rigorous mission planning, briefing, and approval process to ensure we are able to accurately identify all the risks involved and mitigate them to the lowest level possible. We attempt to reduce the overall risk of the mission by isolating components within the mission that we can affect. We have collectively attached a number system to all these separate elements which provide a sum-total of the overall risks but also allow us to identify and singular risks that are outside the norms. I've designed a system within Microsoft excel that allows users or individual pilots to break down their mission in the system described above. It utilizes several formulas that calculate various elements of the mission which is feeds into the mission briefing and approval process (decision making).
The system is designed twofold, first it helps highlight and elevate the more serious risks to the briefing officer. His role is to help reduce these risk factors by way of limitations or developing control measures that keep our crews safer. The second aspect is that once this mission briefing officer develops certain control measures the final mission approval authority receives the packet. This is the final decision, by way of the system, enables the final mission approval authority to make the most educated decision.
The most significant impact on forward planning is that we're able to reduce residual risks to the appropriate level. This in turn allows us to accomplish our mission with the least amount of risk for or crews. Other aspects of planning allow us to integrate various weather forecasts so when weather is forecasted to contain lower ceilings or reduced visibility we can select more senior crew members. Overall, our system has streamline the decision making process and allows the decision maker to be educated and aware of all the risks involved.

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