Chapter 3 of the Wharton text discusses the power
of everyday reasoning in multistage decision-making. I have a similar
requirement as every aviation mission we launch has a rigorous mission
planning, briefing, and approval process to ensure we are able to accurately
identify all the risks involved and mitigate them to the lowest level possible.
We attempt to reduce the overall risk of the mission by isolating components
within the mission that we can affect. We have collectively attached a number
system to all these separate elements which provide a sum-total of the overall
risks but also allow us to identify and singular risks that are outside the
norms. I've designed a system within Microsoft excel that allows users or
individual pilots to break down their mission in the system described above. It
utilizes several formulas that calculate various elements of the mission which
is feeds into the mission briefing and approval process (decision making).
The system is designed twofold, first it helps
highlight and elevate the more serious risks to the briefing officer. His role
is to help reduce these risk factors by way of limitations or developing
control measures that keep our crews safer. The second aspect is that once this
mission briefing officer develops certain control measures the final mission
approval authority receives the packet. This is the final decision, by way of
the system, enables the final mission approval authority to make the most educated
decision.
The most significant impact on forward planning is
that we're able to reduce residual risks to the appropriate level. This in turn
allows us to accomplish our mission with the least amount of risk for or crews.
Other aspects of planning allow us to integrate various weather forecasts so
when weather is forecasted to contain lower ceilings or reduced visibility we can
select more senior crew members. Overall, our system has streamline the
decision making process and allows the decision maker to be educated and aware
of all the risks involved.
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